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Nakata Lab
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The lab uses mathematics to unravel a society and economy full of uncertainty.
AboutAbout the lab
Confronting a world overflowing with uncertainty with economic and mathematical intuition
Nakata Lab specializes in the economics of uncertainty and studies, mathematically, how people make decisions and form beliefs.
Building rigorous theory on mathematics such as measure theory, the lab pursues policy-oriented research that includes methods for evaluating impacts on society and the economy as a whole.
Using topics such as climate change, disasters, and social division driven by social media, the lab also conducts research that tests hypotheses derived from theory against data.
The lab welcomes students from science and mathematics backgrounds such as mathematics and physics, as well as students from humanities and social science backgrounds who want to pursue logical thinking to its end.
Key terms
- Measure theory
- A mathematical theory for rigorously handling "size" such as length, area, and probability. It forms the foundation of probability theory.
- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model
- A mathematical model that calculates, over time, the movement of the entire economy including random events. It is known as a DSGE model.
- Echo chamber effect
- A phenomenon in which, as people with similar opinions exchange information among themselves, their views become stronger or more biased.
NewsLab news
Working paper released on SSRN
Paper published in the journal Financial Review
Doctoral and master's students won the Graduate School Dean's Award
ResearchResearch themes
At its core, the lab builds theory describing how heterogeneous beliefs and expectations arise and how they are updated, using measure-theoretic probability theory. Building on this, the lab collaborates with experts and public institutions in Japan and abroad on empirical research addressing uncertainty such as climate change and financial risk.
*Illustrative imageClimate Finance
The lab mathematically evaluates how climate policies such as emissions trading and carbon taxes affect the financial system and the welfare of society as a whole. Using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that allow heterogeneous expectations, it analyzes which policies are desirable.
*Illustrative imageResilience to Disasters
The lab studies how households, firms, and local communities should maintain their resilience in the face of large-scale disasters, which are hard to predict. Drawing on incomplete contract theory as well, it makes proposals on the desirable design of insurance and public support.
*Illustrative imageHeterogeneous Expectations and Communication
The lab theoretically investigates why opinions fail to converge even when information is shared. Using topics such as immigration policy and social division, it analyzes how the provision of information affects echo chamber effects and the polarization of beliefs.
*Illustrative imageMeasuring Economic Diversity
The lab works on methods that apply the multiplicative decomposition of diversity to derive structural differences between societies (beta diversity) from observable micro- and macro-level indicators. It aims to quantify diversity that cannot be observed directly, such as attitudes toward risk and expectations.
MembersFaculty
- ProfessorHiroyuki NakataPublications ↗
VoicesStudent voices
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Report an errorAbout the images
The top and research theme images are illustrative and were not taken at the lab. They are cropped from Wikimedia Commons images. Cropped CC BY-SA images are provided under the same CC BY-SA license as the original (version shown on each line).
- Top image: “Tabuleiros de Galton (antes e depois)” Exhibit made by Estes Objethos Atelier, photo by Rodrigo Tetsuo Argenton / CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped)
- Climate Finance: “Biysk TEC smoke stack” Игоревич / Public domain (cropped)
- Resilience to Disasters: “2011 flooding in Ayutthaya Province-EO-1-ALI, image 2” NASA Earth Observatory image created by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using EO-1 ALI data provided courtesy of the NASA EO-1 team and the United States Geological Survey. / Public domain (cropped)
- Heterogeneous Expectations and Communication: “Network Visualization” Martin Grandjean / CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped)
- Measuring Economic Diversity: “Glass Marbles” www.badobadop.co.uk / CC BY-SA 3.0 (cropped)
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